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Several recent studies have been made correlating flu infection and transmission rates to climatic conditions. All of these studies point to humidity as a limiting factor in flu infections. The short version is that when the amount of water vapor in the air drops below 10 mb of water vapor pressure the flu infection and transmission rate greatly increases.
The 10 mb level seems to be the knee of the curve. This means that when the water vapor in the air decreases below 10 mb the flu lives much longer in the air and transmission rates are much higher then when the amount of water in the air increases above 10 mb (10 mb is also 7.48 mmHg or 7.64 gm/m^3).
If the outside air has a lot of water in it then the flu doesn’t live very long and the infection rates go way down. However, if the air inside a building like a mall where there were a lot of people in close proximity has less than 10 mb of water in it flu transmission and infection rates will be very high even if the air outside of the mall had a lot of water in it.
Situations like this generally occur in the winter time as most heating systems don’t add water to the air when its heated to make the interior of a building, or a mall, warm and comfortable. The rates of flu infection at 5 mb is more than four times what it is at 10 mb. At 20 mb the infection and transmission rate is less than 20% of what it is at 10 mb.
The 10 mb point refers to the absolute amount of water in the air. It is also called absolute humidity. Don’t confuse this term with relative humidity as the two are not the same. Relative humidity and air temperature vary inversely while absolute humidity doesn't change as the temperature changes.
To simplify matters the following table lists the relative humidity (RH) at various temperatures (F) where the absolute humidity is 10 mb. What this means is that the flu becomes much more infective for values of relative humidity below that shown in the table for any given temperature.
For example: At 70 degrees F the relative humidity that corresponds to an absolute humidity of 10 mb is 40%. This means that if the temperature is 70 F and the humidity is 30%, or lower, the flu will be highly infective and have high transmission rates. On the other hand if the temperature is 70 F and the humidity is 50%, or above, the flu will not be very infective and transmission rates will be very low.
The following table summarizes the relation between Temperature and Relative Humidity for 10 mb of water vapor pressure.
| Temperature (F) | RH (%) |
| 120 | 9 |
| 110 | 11 |
| 100 | 15 |
| 90 | 20 |
| 80 | 30 |
| 70 | 40 |
| 60 | 60 |
| 50 | 80 |
| 44 | 100 |
Here: Temperature is in degrees F, and
RH (%) is the Relative Humidity percentage
For temperatures below 44 F there is so little water in the air (even if its raining and foggy) that infection and transmission rates are always very high. This explains why winter time is generally called the flu season.
Now that we have shown how flu infections are tied to the amount of water in the air we need to go on to the matter of infectivity versus time. It has been found that the longer the flu virus is floating around in the air its activity decreases. For example, an infected person coughs up thousands of very tiny droplets full of virus into the air. These droplets are extremely infective to anyone who breathes them in immediately after the cough. However, as time goes on the virus slowly dies within these droplets. Eventually these droplets will not cause an infection if breathed in at a much later time. From data gathered over the years a graph of infection rate can be plotted for the 10 mb vapor pressure point versus time. What we find is:
At 6 minutes the virus in the droplets are 75% infective, at one hour they are 45% infective, at 6 hours they are down to 20% and at 24 hours their infection rate is down to 3%. These percentages are different for each different vapor pressure point. The following table sets this out more clearly.
| mb | IER (%) | Transmission | 1 Hour IER (%) |
| 5 | 50 | High | 75 |
| 10 | 10 | Moderate | 45 |
| 20 | 2 | Low | 15 |
| 40 | 0 | Extremely Low | 7 |
Here: IER = Initial Infection/Exposure Rate in a non-confined area, and
1 Hour IER = Infection/Exposure Rate one hour in a confined area after a cough.
A side note on these droplets. They are so small that they easily pass right through paint masks and filter masks. Studies have shown that wearing paint masks and filter masks don't provide any protection from getting the flu. These masks are useful for people who are already infected as they will stop some of the droplets from getting out into the air when the person coughs. But they are of no use to people who are not already infected.
Now, all of this needs to be tied together to get the overall picture of the dynamics of infection in the real world. The next step is to calculate the expected infection rate in various locations using the data set our above. We will simplify this complex task into an easy to understand table.
The following table is representative of a moderate winter day (the flu season) with the outside temperature about 40 F. For more severe winter days and lower temperatures the water vapor pressure, mb, will be lower and the IER (%) will be higher.
| Location | mb | IER (%) |
| Open Outdoors | 5 | 5 |
| Crowded Sidewalk | 5 | 50 |
| Hospitals (not flu ward) | 6 | 60 |
| Public Buildings | 6 | 45 |
| Government Buildings | 6 | 54 |
| Shopping Malls | 7 | 65 |
| Train Stations | 6 | 40 |
| Airport Terminals | 6 | 40 |
| Subway Stations | 6 | 40 |
| Homes | 7 | 35 |
| Airplanes | 5 | 85 |
| Cabs/Taxis | 5 | 75 |
| Buses | 5 | 75 |
| Subways | 5 | 75 |
| Other Mass Transit | 5 | 75 |
| Private Auto (no riders) | 5 | 25 |
From this it can be seen that taking public transportation during a flu epidemic is very risky. This isn't because of the source of the transportation but because of the closeness of infected people in a confined area with little or poor air filtration and circulation. The very worse are airplanes and this is because of the very close quarters, long times together breathing the same air and poor filtration and circulation systems.
While there are things that can be done to help reduce the infection rates in public transportation systems they are generally very difficult to implement and are expensive. This isn't necessarily the case with public buildings and other places where people gather. Buildings and malls can be made relatively infection free with a little bit of effort in reasonably short times.
The most critical places during a flu epidemic are hospitals. These places are teaming with live virus in the air. Their waiting rooms are full of people with the flu spreading it among the uninfected. Containment of an airborne contagion in a hospital is difficult and the general thought is to keep all the sick people in a containment room. However, few hospitals have them and the ones that do can't accommodate very many sick people at one time. While this may sound like an insurmountable problem to the hospital staff things can be done that will greatly decrease the rate of infections that don't involve containment.
Neither the statements made on this website nor any products offered on this website have been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. The products and information mentioned on this site are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Information and statements made are for educational purposes and are not intended to replace the advice of your doctor. GlycoMeds does not dispense medical advice, prescribe, or diagnose illness. The views and nutritional advice expressed by GlycoMeds are not intended to be a substitute for conventional medical service. If you have a medical condition, see your physician of choice.
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Copyright© 2011, GlycoMeds
Web services provided by eCreations